China’s Chairman Xi Jinping’s personal choice of Minister for National Defence, just six months into the job, appears to have been disappeared.
Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen for more than a fortnight.
And that’s an ominous sign in Beijing.
Foreign Minister Qin Gang was the first to vanish in June. And the leadership of China’s nuclear arsenal were publicly fired amid allegations of corruption a month later.
Adding to the intrigue of their politically embarrassing removals is that all were personal picks by Xi for the top jobs.
Where is Li Shangfu?
General Li took the top inner sanctum job in March as Xi reconfigured his leadership team for his controversial third term. He’d had the Communist Party’s constitution changed to allow him to essentially lead the country as long as he chooses instead of the mandated two five-year terms.
Now, just six months later, Li has vanished.
His disappearance appears to follow the pattern recently applied to another of Xi’s “Captain’s call” third ministry picks – Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
At first, Qin simply failed to appear at events where he would typically be expected. Then, “health” was blamed for his absence. Then, all mention of him began to be removed from official Communist Party websites.
“I have no information to offer,” was the best foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning could offer when international media questioned.
Then, without explanation, Mr Qin’s predecessor – Wang Yi – was formally restored to the senior role.
Minister Li is at the “health” stage. His profile remains on the Ministry of National Defence website – for now.
The former aerospace engineer was a central figure in Xi’s drive to modernise the Chinese ministry. He was last seen on August 29 when he gave a speech at the Beijing China-Africa Peace and Security Forum.
Loyalty, incompetence or corruption?
Publicly, the Chinese Communist Party has been taking the pain for the ongoing purge of Beijing’s top leadership. Most, if not all, have been accused and convicted of corruption.
But international analysts speculate that the current focus on the military is a sign of Xi seeking to ensure he retains personal control after Russia’s recent Wagner mercenary revolt and military command staff turmoil.
“We must strictly enforce the education and management of troops, and maintain a high degree of unity, security and stability,” the Chairman said during an inspection tour of military facilities in northeast China at the weekend.
Xi’s words focused on competence.
“Members of the Central Military Commission should take the lead in carrying out investigations and research by organising seminars and exchange experiences”, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) news service quoted Xi as saying.
But corruption was also on his mind.
“Officers must say no to formalism and bureaucracy, and follow a simple and frugal style with a humble and prudent mindset in conducting investigation and research,” Xi added.
Nuclear Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao, deputies Zhang Zhenzhong and Liu Guangbin and political commissar Xu Zhongbo were publicly dismissed earlier this year.
They’re among more than 120 high-ranking officials – including dozens of senior military commanders – purged under corruption charges since Xi took power in 2013. In all, some 2.3 million government officials have been prosecuted.
But loyalty may also be a pressing issue.
In July, Xi said ensuring Communist Party discipline within the ranks was the “political guarantee” the military needed to meet its “centenary goal” – becoming an unbeatable fighting force by 2027.
Reading the tea leaves
Singapore-based China analyst James Char believes the recent minister shake-up is “more a symptom of the party army’s internal clean-up, rather than a sign of China’s incumbent leader losing his grip on the military”.
He points to the disappearance of another senior commander, General Ju Qiansheng of the PLA Strategic Support Force, as another example of the purge. Ju had been responsible for China’s space, cyber, electronic and psychological warfare operations.
“There remains a remote possibility he has been inculpated for the suspected Chinese reconnaissance balloon that flew over the United States earlier this year and momentarily threatened to derail Sino-US relations for good,” Char adds.
But senior China research analyst Eric Hundman told the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that there may be deeper problems.
China’s military, he says, has traditionally been a “rice bowl” – an easy “paycheck for life”.
“They’re trying to change that,” Hundman says. “That’s been a huge drag on morale. The shrinking of the army has caused huge problems in terms of interrupting career paths … There might be major morale problems with the PLA. We can’t see it. They’re not going to let us see much of these kinds of larger systemic-level problems.”
Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Dr Phillip Saunders says a sign of the severity of the problems is Chairman Xi’s proximity to the people involved.
“Xi Jinping would have given them the once over before agreeing to their appointment in the first place,” he said. “So these are his guys that looked pretty good when he appointed them. And now they don’t look good and are such trouble that he has had to remove them.”
War talk
Chairman Xi Jinping’s getting serious about war. He’s ordered his command staff to “educate themselves” on the challenges facing frontline troops. And this comes after the top commanders of his nuclear arsenal were sacked.
War talk is everywhere within China.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled Global Times proclaims the United States has “crossed a red line” and that it now faces “lethal consequences”.
“China’s strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition are obvious, but China’s response to the continuous provocations by the US on the Taiwan question will not be limited to mere statements,” the Global Times threatened. “The brewing and imminent storm of lethal consequences for Taiwan cannot be ignored”.
For his part, Chairman Xi appears determined to walk the talk.
He’s been on yet another military inspection tour this week. And he’s again called for “security”, “unity” and “stability” within the ranks.
But this time, he’s ordered his military generals to get out of their bunkers and join the troops on the training ground to conduct “field research” into their problems.
‘Bad things’
He’s modernised his military. He’s dramatically expanded his navy. And Chairman Xi – like President Vladimir Putin with Ukraine – has made no secret of his desire to seize Taiwan.
“He cannot stop talking about war. His regime is fast making preparations for waging one, implementing the largest military build-up since the Second World War. He is also trying to sanction-proof the Chinese regime, stockpiling grain and other commodities, surveying America, mobilising China’s civilians for battle, and purging China’s military of high-ranking officers,” argues political commentator Gordon Chang.
This week, a Chinese aircraft carrier battlegroup conducted air combat exercises against more than 20 land-based aircraft as it sailed through waters under Taiwan’s responsibility on its way past the Philippines and into the western Pacific and towards Japan.
The operation comes just days after the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines conducted naval drills in the disputed South China Sea.
“With this level of threat against Taiwan, heightened acts in the South China Sea and joint military exercises with Russia in August, it’s hard to believe the PRC really wants peace amid its economic slump. Beijing should spend resources on its people, not threatening others,” Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu said Tuesday.
However, not everything appears to be going according to Xi’s plan.
US President Joe Biden has claimed China’s employment and household economics issues presented a risk to Xi’s leadership. And “when bad folks have problems, they do bad things”, he recently told a campaign gathering in Utah.
The president has previously declared Xi a dictator who has usurped control of the Chinese Communist Party. “China is in trouble,” he said, adding Xi’s leadership was “a ticking time bomb”.
But can Xi be as bad as he wants?
“I think there’s a little bit of a disconnect, because what … Xi Jinping wants is for the army to be obeying the Party and protecting the Party’s interests and doing whatever is necessary to keep the Party in power – even if that means using force against Chinese citizens,” says Saunders.
“For the army, there’s a little more ambivalence there. They view themselves as the torchbearers of Chinese nationalism, as working on behalf of China. They are much more focused on external threats and China’s national interests rather than the narrow interests of the Party. And they really don’t like the idea of having to use military force against Chinese citizens.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel