If not Kamala Harris, who else could be the Democratic candidate in the November election?
NEW YORK CITY / CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and drop out of the US presidential race has sparked enough protests for Vice President Kamala Harris to become president. -national for the Democratic Party, according to three Arab American analysts.
Biden, who supported Harris in announcing his resignation on Sunday, has trailed former President Donald Trump in the polls amid the Arab American #AbandonBiden movement, and more calls for his resignation. in the 2024 race after his terrible debate performance on June 27 in Atlanta. .
The crowning of Biden, 81, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19 has become an open contest in which nearly 4,700 delegates will vote on the state's nominee. he will vote against Trump. , the candidate of the Republican Party.
Rana Abtar, a Washington DC talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to become the Democratic nominee, although other candidates may also be considered. However, he believes that Democrats “must show unity” if they want to win the November election.
“Today, what we're noticing is that Democrats are starting to support Harris one by one,” he told Arab News. “There were some representatives in two states who had already voted to support Kamala Harris. This means that their votes are reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The rest of the Democrats who did not support Harris are expected to drop out soon. At some point we will see all Democrats, or most Democrats, lining up behind Harris. The show of unity is crucial for Democrats after the problems their party faced after President Biden announced that he would not seek a second term.
Biden's withdrawal from the race freed convention delegates from the nation's 50 states and territories to endorse any candidate during the convention. Several other names have been floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, Rep. Former Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular with African-American voters, a key pillar of the Democratic Party's support, Abtar said many still see him as part of the Biden administration's policies that pushed the #AbandonBiden movement, where Arabs and Muslims are voting in large swings. presidential primaries for “absent” or “no vote” options instead of for president.
“Harris is not very popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “A lot of Democrats are worried that their chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's chances against Trump. Obviously, in the coming days, we're going to see Harris come out, talk to the voters, because in the past, as vice president, he didn't speak directly to the American people many times.
“Biden gave him the immigration case, which put him in a very strange position, especially since the main attack of the Republicans on the Democrats is about immigration and border security.
“But I believe the most important element here is not Harris. He will choose that as his candidate because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote. “
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are often considered “election spoilers.” and the candidate of the Green Party Dr. Jill Stein, — someone who might vote for Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered high for an independent candidate and his voters could make a difference this election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if they win the nomination.” he is official,” said Abtar.
Anyone nominated to replace Biden now could become vice president, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudallali, a former UN ambassador and CEO of Bridges International Group, thinks Harris has a “vision problem”.
He told Arab News: “The perception is that he is not a strong vice president, he will not be a strong candidate and he will not be able to beat Trump.”
While Democrats appear to have moved quickly to rally behind Harris, including the endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“It's all up in the air because there are still very strong Democrats who are calling for an open convention and an open space for everyone to throw their hat in the ring, and see if they can get the strongest candidate for the They are the Democratic Party. can beat Trump,” he said.
The influence of independent candidates in the election cannot be ruled out, he added.
“In a close election, independent candidates can cause a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race — you're talking about thousands, if not a thousand votes — that can make or break an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy could get a lot of votes from the Democrats, it would hurt the Democrats even more and it would be a big problem for them.”
“But until now we do not know who will be the candidate of the Democratic Party. If the person is a strong candidate, the party may be able to unify the anti-Trump district, which will vote heavily for the candidate on the Democratic side. If that is the case, privatization will not make a difference”.
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “uncertain” to replace Biden as the nominee, and suggested Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be his running mate. the first “all women ticket”.
He told Arab News: “The speculation is very much focused on who will be his vice president, including an all-female ticket if he chooses Whitmer. It is unprecedented and brings risk. But Whitmer can help deliver the state of Michigan, and the all-female team can revitalize the now-defunct Democratic base.”
He added: “Harris's rating with the American public is not very high. But right now, the decision of the Democratic Party and President Biden to put his name forward is based on funding and the money. He alone can get all the money, the hundreds of millions, that have been collected so far. Therefore, his choice as a wife will also be important in the matter of bringing down this democratic camp. it and for the general preference of the democratic ticket.
Maksad believes Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, and speculation about helping Whitmer on the ticket, could play a role in the strong Arab and Muslim vote. in Michigan, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the February 27 Democratic primary. .
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities spread across the four states. Michigan is getting a lot of attention, but so are Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza and President Biden is not doing what needs to be done to end the war. Biden's mediation opens the possibility for the Democratic Party to reach Arab Americans in Michigan again. And if the vice president (elect) is actually the governor of Michigan, it will give the Democrats more opportunity to step in and win Michigan again, as a war state. “
